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3E Rory, Elisha and Harry each spun the same spinner a number of times and recorded how many times it landed on a section labelled 5. Their results are shown below. a) They each used their own results to work out the estimated probability of the spinner landing on 5 . Which person had the best estimate for the probability? b) By combining all of their results, work out the estimated probability of the spinner landing on 5 Give your answer as a decimal. c) Will using the combined results give a better or worse estimate than using only one person's results? Write a sentence to explain your answer.

Question

3E
Rory, Elisha and Harry each spun the same spinner a number of times and
recorded how many times it landed on a section labelled 5. Their results are
shown below.
a) They each used their own results to work out the estimated probability of the
spinner landing on 5 . Which person had the best estimate for the probability?
b) By combining all of their results, work out the estimated probability of the
spinner landing on 5 Give your answer as a decimal.
c) Will using the combined results give a better or worse estimate than using only
one person's results? Write a sentence to explain your answer.

3E Rory, Elisha and Harry each spun the same spinner a number of times and recorded how many times it landed on a section labelled 5. Their results are shown below. a) They each used their own results to work out the estimated probability of the spinner landing on 5 . Which person had the best estimate for the probability? b) By combining all of their results, work out the estimated probability of the spinner landing on 5 Give your answer as a decimal. c) Will using the combined results give a better or worse estimate than using only one person's results? Write a sentence to explain your answer.

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QuentinExpert · Tutor for 3 years

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a) Elisha had the best estimate for the probability with a P of \(0.25\).<br />b) Combined, the estimated probability results to P \(=0.19\) when pared down.<br />c) Using combined results gives a better estimate because according to the Law of Large Numbers, a higher number of experiments gets us closer to the true probability.

Explain

## Step 1: Calculate the estimated probability of spinner landing on 5 for each person. <br /><br />The formula for probability is:<br /><br />### \(\frac{\text{Desired outcomes}}{\text{Total Possible outcomes}}\)<br /><br />For each person, the probability of landing on 5 could be calculated as:<br /><br />\[\begin{aligned}<br />&Rory's Probability =\frac{12}{50} = 0.24 \\<br />&Elisha's Probability =\frac{15}{60} = 0.25 \\<br />&Harry's Probability =\frac{7}{70}= 0.1<br />\end{aligned} \]<br /><br />## Step 2: Determine who has the highest probability estimate:<br /><br />By examining the results, the highest probability is:<br /><br />Elisha with Probability \(= 0.25 \)<br /><br />## Step 3: Combining all results, calculating the combined probability of spinner landing on 5:<br /><br />The combined results could be calculated by adding up all the number of spins and the times it landed on the number 5. Here's how it would look like:<br /><br />\[\begin{aligned}<br />&Total spins = 50 + 60 + 70 = 180 \\<br />&Total times it landed on 5 = 12 + 15 + 7 = 34 \\<br />&Estimated combined probability =\frac{34}{180} = 0.188\ approximately. This could be flagged as 0.19 for brevity.<br />\end{aligned} \]<br /><br />## Step 4: Understanding the better estimate.<br /><br />Taking into consideration the Law of Large Numbers (LLN), which in probability theory suggests that the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times would yield to an outcome expected to be the probabilistic expected outcome, aggregating all given data will give a more accurate estimate for a simple reason: as you increase the number of experiments (spins in this particular case), your result tends toward the expected value. In this case, more data equals more spins; the more spins, the closer we theoretically get to the true probability.
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